DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE OF UKRAINE

 

DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE OF UKRAINE

Russia's military aggression has exacerbated the demographic crisis in Ukraine. After the start of the full-scale invasion, the country faced a number of challenges that led to a decline in population: large-scale external migration, a decline in the birth rate, an increase in premature mortality, etc. The Government's response to the challenges of the war was to develop and implement a demographic strategy to restore human potential, improve living conditions and ensure sustainable development of Ukraine.
Russia's military aggression has exacerbated the demographic crisis in Ukraine. After the start of the full-scale invasion, the country faced a number of challenges that led to a decline in population: large-scale external migration, a decline in the birth rate, an increase in premature mortality, etc. The Government's response to the challenges of the war was to develop and implement a demographic strategy to restore human potential, improve living conditions and ensure sustainable development of Ukraine.
Demography
The Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine estimates that in 2024, 31 million people will live in Ukraine, with about 5 million living in the temporarily occupied territories. Another 5 million of our citizens are still abroad, fleeing the armed invasion of Russia.
Demography
The Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukrainein 2024, 31 million people will live in Ukraine, with about 5 million living in the temporarily occupied territories. Another 5 million of our citizens are still abroad, fleeing the armed invasion of Russia.

Migration

In the past, there have been several waves of Ukrainian migration abroad. However, the largest wave of forced migration from Ukraine was triggered by Russia's full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. According to various estimates, 11-13 million Ukrainians lived outside Ukraine before the full-scale invasion, and now this number has increased to 16-19 million.

Migration

In the past, there have been several waves of Ukrainian migration abroad. However, the largest wave of forced migration from Ukraine was triggered by Russia's full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. According to various estimates, 11-13 million Ukrainians lived outside Ukraine before the full-scale invasion, and now this number has increased to 16-19 million.

Birth rate

There is an indicator of the norm for natural reproduction of the population — 2.2 children per woman. In the EU, the figure is 1.5. In Ukraine, in 2021, the rate was 1.16 children per woman, and in 2023 it fell to 0.9, one of the lowest rates in the world.

Birth rate

There is an indicator of the norm for natural reproduction of the population — 2.2 children per woman. In the EU, the figure is 1.5. In Ukraine, in 2021, the rate was 1.16 children per woman, and in 2023 it fell to 0.9, one of the lowest rates in the world.

Aging

On the territory of Ukraine within the 1991 borders, the number of births and the fertility rate have fallen to the lowest levels in the history of observations. In 2023, 187 thousand children were born in Ukraine. Currently, more than 25% of people in Ukraine are aged 60 and over. The ratio of officially employed people to pensioners is 1:1, and the burden on each working person will continue to increase.

Aging

On the territory of Ukraine within the 1991 borders, the number of births and the fertility rate have fallen to the lowest levels in the history of observations. In 2023, 187 thousand children were born in Ukraine. Currently, more than 25% of people in Ukraine are aged 60 and over. The ratio of officially employed people to pensioners is 1:1, and the burden on each working person will continue to increase.

Actions to be taken

To ensure demographic sustainability, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, with the support of UNFPA the United Nations Population Fund in Ukraine, has developed the Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine until 2040. Representatives of the Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, UA Experts, government agencies, NGOs, international partners and demographic experts from different countries took part in the development of the document.

Actions to be taken

To ensure demographic sustainability, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, with the support of UNFPA the United Nations Population Fund in Ukraine, has developed the Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine until 2040. Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, UA Experts, government agencies, NGOs, international partners and demographic experts from different countries took part in the development of the document.

Actions to be taken

To ensure demographic sustainability, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, with the support of UNFPA the United Nations Population Fund in Ukraine, has developed the Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine until 2040. Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of UkraineUA Experts, government agencies, NGOs, international partners and demographic experts from different countries took part in the development of the document.
On the Strategy

The Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine is a long-term programme document. It identifies the main challenges and threats to Ukraine's development, which have been exacerbated by Russia's armed aggression, as well as goals and objectives to overcome social and humanitarian problems. 

The strategy takes into account Ukraine's advantages as a basis for improving living conditions: convenient digital public services, affordable healthcare, comfortable climate, cultural heritage, etc. In the future, Ukraine can become a global centre for the development of military technologies, provide rehabilitation and prosthetics services, and rebuild infrastructure that will open up opportunities for professional and career fulfilment. Awareness of all these benefits will help Ukrainians return to their homeland.

On the Strategy

The Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine is a long-term programme document. It identifies the main challenges and threats to Ukraine's development, which have been exacerbated by Russia's armed aggression, as well as goals and objectives to overcome social and humanitarian problems. 

The strategy takes into account Ukraine's advantages as a basis for improving living conditions: convenient digital public services, affordable healthcare, comfortable climate, cultural heritage, etc. In the future, Ukraine can become a global centre for the development of military technologies, provide rehabilitation and prosthetics services, and rebuild infrastructure that will open up opportunities for professional and career fulfilment. Awareness of all these benefits will help Ukrainians return to their homeland.

The strategy is based on the following principles:
The strategy is based on  the following principles:

This website has been made possible with the support of the United Kingdom Government through the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office as part of the project ‘Support to the Government of Ukraine to Develop and Implement Evidence-Based Policies to Address Demographic Challenges’, implemented by UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund in Ukraine, in collaboration with UA Experts. The information presented on this website does not necessarily reflect the views of the UK Government or UNFPA. 

This website has been made possible with the support of the United Kingdom Government through the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office as part of the project ‘Support to the Government of Ukraine to Develop and Implement Evidence-Based Policies to Address Demographic Challenges’, implemented by UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund in Ukraine, in collaboration with UA Experts. The information presented on this website does not necessarily reflect the views of the UK Government or UNFPA.

Return of migrants
Ukraine will be in need of significant human capital not only for demographic reproduction but also for large-scale post-war reconstruction.Key tasks include creating conditions for the voluntary return of our citizens to Ukraine, slowing the outflow of young people abroad, and encouraging the return of the diaspora and Ukrainians abroad. 
If the needs of the labour market cannot be met by domestic resources, it is necessary to develop a mechanism for assessing the shortage of labour needs and a procedure for selecting foreign citizens with the necessary qualifications.
Support for families with children
Ukraine is working towards increasing the birth rate. We have to create a family-friendly environment and invest in the development of childcare infrastructure: individual housing, kindergartens, educational and medical facilities, etc. Every woman should be confident that she will not suffer a loss of income and career prospects after the birth of a child, and will be able to return to work and continue her self-realisation. 
 
Every family that has difficulties in having a child should be able to use reproductive technologies or the available mechanisms of adoption. Every child should be brought up in a family. Family policy should be aimed at protecting families with children from poverty, increasing their economic self-sufficiency, promoting families with two or more children and overcoming negative stereotypes that exist in society regarding having children.
Reducing excessive mortality
To increase the life expectancy of men and women, it is necessary to raise awareness of individual responsibility for their own health, promote healthy lifestyles, and develop self-preserving behaviour (safe driving, compliance with safety rules at work, preventive medical examinations, etc.) Medical and social services should be adapted for people with disabilities.
Inclusive labour market
Everyone has to be able to pursue professional self-realisation and earn a decent living, and the state's task is to effectively help them do so, regardless of age, gender or functional disability. We need to build a barrier-free environment adapted for veterans, people with disabilities, the elderly, mothers with children, etc. The state should promote entrepreneurship, self-employment, flexible working conditions and remote employment. We need to invest in the available human capital within the country, implement vocational education and retraining programmes, courses and trainings — oriented to the needs of the labour market.
Longevity
Creating conditions for a quality life for older people is an important part of the Strategy. The document envisages expanding opportunities for disease prevention and treatment, and introducing an effective care system.  It is important to modernise the pension system and create conditions for self-realisation and active participation of older people in the labour market, as well as in leisure, culture, sports and social activities.
Ukraine is a country you want to live in
Government policy has to ensure the cross-cutting preconditions for Ukrainians to return to Ukraine and build families here. Among other things, it is important to provide a safe environment, affordable individual housing, and build convenient and high-quality infrastructure – educational, medical, social, cultural, and sports – based on the principles of inclusiveness and human centeredness.